Stagflation, dollar fall, cannibals, and doubling oil prices. — It’s hard to believe, but 2022 is over. Every year, I come up with ten financial and macroeconomic predictions ranging from evident to outright absurd. I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but as an avid student of financial history and lifelong investor, I believe some events have higher chances…

Nietzsche: “I’m not upset that you lied to me. I’m upset that from now on, I can’t believe you.” — Do you remember when the White House tried to change the definition of a recession? Their July blog post claimed that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP doesn’t constitute a recession. They argued that we need a “holistic look” at the data that primarily include the labor market. …

Bitcoin maximalists have been proven right again. The lesson to all victims is the same: Self-custody your bitcoin. — Just a couple of days ago, FTX was once one of the biggest crypto exchanges on the planet, but it imploded in a manner of hours, blowing billions of dollars up in smoke. Last Friday, its owner Sam Bankman Fried, SBF, once one of the richest men in crypto, filed…

Paul Tudor Jones, Social Capital, ARK Invest, Microstrategy, Greyscale, Fidelity, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, or Blackrock are already on board. — Institutional investors have tens of trillions of dollars worth of assets under management, and it looks like they jumped on the bitcoin bandwagon. In 2020 Paul Tudor Jones, Social Capital, ARK Invest, Microstrategy, Greyscale, or Fidelity bought bitcoin. …

Bad decisions and bad policy decisions lead to pain and suffering. — There’s no shortage of bad market news these days. We have already gotten used to historical inflation, recession, or war in Ukraine. But now we have an even bigger crisis on the horizon, a raging energy crisis in Europe. So, let’s take a look at the facts. EU natural gas…

Three ways to explore Burry’s bear case. — Hedge fund manager Michael Burry’s from Scion Asset Management dumped all but one of its stock holdings in the second quarter. Burry is one the first investor to foresee and profit from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. He is best known for being profiled in “The Big Short,” a book…

Store your long term financial energy in hard assets, but never even consider storing it in the government currencies. — Money makes the world go around, but most people have no clue what money is. Even most so-called economists have no clear definition of money. Investopedia defines money as a medium of exchange, but that completely misses the point. So here’s a simple way to describe money. Money is financial…

Now we can change reality merely by calling it something else. — You may have noticed the White House published a blog post late last week titled “How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession?” But despite the Orwellian spin, the US economy has been in a recession all year. What is a recession? The Oxford dictionary defines a recession as “a period…

Regulators are slowly realizing the difference between the bitcoin and 20,000 altcoins. — The Terra LUNA crash sent shock waves through the crypto market. It wiped off an estimated $60 billion of the value of LUNA and UST, taking the whole crypto market with it. So what can you and I learn as investors to protect ourselves from being burned? Here are my…